A method for evaluating elicitation schemes for probabilistic models

A method for evaluating elicitation schemes for probabilistic models

We present an objective approach for evaluating probability and structure elicitation methods in probabilistic models. The main idea is to use the model derived from the experts' experience rather than the true model as the standard to compare the elicited model. We describe a general procedure by which it is possible to capture the data corresponding to the expert's beliefs, and we present a s...

A Method for Evaluating Elicitation Schemes for Probabilities

We present an objective approach for evaluating probability elicitation methods in probabilistic models. Our method draws on ideas from research on learning Bayesian networks: if we assume that the expert’s knowledge is manifested essentially as a database of records that have been collected in the course of the expert’s experience, and if this database of records were available to us, then the...

a new approach to credibility premium for zero-inflated poisson models for panel data

هدف اصلی از این تحقیق به دست آوردن و مقایسه حق بیمه باورمندی در مدل های شمارشی گزارش نشده برای داده های طولی می باشد. در این تحقیق حق بیمه های پبش گویی بر اساس توابع ضرر مربع خطا و نمایی محاسبه شده و با هم مقایسه می شود. تمایل به گرفتن پاداش و جایزه یکی از دلایل مهم برای گزارش ندادن تصادفات می باشد و افراد برای استفاده از تخفیف اغلب از گزارش تصادفات با هزینه پائین خودداری می کنند، در این تحقیق ...

a study on thermodynamic models for simulation of 1,3 butadiene purification columns

attempts have been made to study the thermodynamic behavior of 1,3 butadiene purification columns with the aim of retrofitting those columns to more energy efficient separation schemes. 1,3 butadiene is purified in two columns in series through being separated from methyl acetylene and 1,2 butadiene in the first and second column respectively. comparisons have been made among different therm...

A new method for solving fuzzy DEA models